Rafael Tovar y de Teresa, el primer secretario de Cultura

La Presidencia informó que Enrique Peña Nieto dio posesión hoy a Rafael Tovar y de Teresa -ex titular de Conaculta- como Secretario de Cultura.

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El mandatario Enrique Peña Nieto dio posesión a Rafael Tovar y de Teresa como secretario de Cultura, durante una ceremonia realizada en el Despacho Presidencial del Palacio Nacional.

Luego de tomar la protesta de ley, establecida en el Artículo 128 constitucional, el Ejecutivo federal leencomendó iniciar de inmediato los trabajos para cumplir con la misión de la nueva dependencia.

La Presidencia de la República detalló, en un comunicado, que su misión es brindar un efectivo respaldo público a los creadores, difundir el arte y la cultura, salvaguardar la pluralidad cultural, resguardar el patrimonio histórico y acercar las actividades artísticas a niños y jóvenes.

El titular de la Secretaría de Cultura, a su vez, expresó su compromiso por trabajar para articular los esfuerzos institucionales que permitan hacer efectivo el acceso a la cultura, como derecho consagrado en el Artículo 4 de la Constitución.

La ceremonia contó con la presencia de los titulares de las secretarías de Gobernación (Segob), Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong, y de Educación Pública (SEP), Aurelio Nuño Mayer, así como el jefe de la Oficina de la Presidencia, Francisco Guzmán Ortiz. (Con información de Notimex)

 

Aristegui Noticias

Carabineros de Colbún Realiza Campaña de Prevención en Terreno

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Carabineros de Colbún Realiza Campaña de Prevención en Terreno.

Carabineros de la Tenencia de Colbún, encabezado por el Teniente Orlando Arriagada, están saliendo a distintos sectores rurales de la comuna para alertar a los vecinos e invitarlos a prevenir y denunciar los delitos de abigeato. Además, a adquirir carnes sólo en lugares habilitados para ello en la comuna y no comprar en clandestinos ya que es un riesgo para la salud de las personas y un delito.
Asimismo, la policía uniformada está informando sobre la importancia de cuidar las pertenencias personales ya sea cartera o billetera, como los artículos que a veces trasladamos en los vehículos o dejamos en la casa como los notebook, celulares, entre otros útiles apetecidos por los ladrones por la facilidad de reducirlos o venderlos.
También, se informa a los ciudadanos sobre la importancia de dejar bien cerrada la casa si se va a alejar de ella por varias horas o por días, producto de estas fiestas de fin de año, en que las familias se trasladan a casa de familiares para compartir en Navidad o Año Nuevo.

Diario El Heraldo

Canberra Airport land dispute sees government abandon $98 million valuation

December 22, 2015 – 1:00PM

Kirsten Lawson

CHIEF ASSEMBLY REPORTER FOR THE CANBERRA TIMES.

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Canberra Airport's Stephen Byron: 'We had to swallow the pill to move on'.

Canberra Airport’s Stephen Byron: ‘We had to swallow the pill to move on’. Photo: Jay Cronan

The ACT government valued the Canberra Airport land at $98 million in 2013-14, sparking a dispute that saw the government settling recently at less than one-quarter the amount.

The government has now set the airport’s rateable land value at $23.7 million in a 15-year deal that includes a formula for increasing the value as extra floor space is added to the airport’s commercial area.

The airport leases 430 hectares from the Commonwealth, including the Majura commercial area where Costco, Masters, Woolworths, Big W and other stores operate. The stores all sublease to the airport so don’t pay separate rates to the ACT.

Ikea is not part of the airport lease, but the ACT government says it will not disclose the rateable value of the block until the end of the financial year.

When the airport lease was signed in 1998 the land was value at $1.6 million, and the airport was billed $32,800 for rates. Since then, the unimproved value of the land has been steadily increased by the ACT.

By 2005-06, the land was valued at $3 million and the rates bill had jumped to $133,300. In 2012-13, the valuation had jumped to $23 million and the rates bill to $643,500. Then came the revaluation to $98 million in 2013-14.

The dispute that has now been settled, with the government passing legislation in November to set the value at $23.7 million, indexed according to increases in Canberra’s commercial property, and revised as extra commercial floor space is added. That means a rates bill this year of $1.14 million. While the airport is understood to have sought a valuation closer to $10-$12 million, it has signed up to the deal.

Airport managing director Stephen Byron said the airport “explicitly said we don’t want to pay no rates, we want to pay reasonable rates”.

Asked whether he was happy with the deal, he said, “It is what it is, and it’s been agreed”. But he pointed out that the airport was now paying 35 times the rates it paid when its lease began 17 years ago.

“At the end of the day we were pleased to reach agreement because it was frustrating our ability to cooperate on a whole range of other much more important business matters,” he said. “We had to swallow the pill to move on.”

An ACT government spokesperson would not release airport rates figures, saying it was taxpayer information and not made publicly available.

The airport was a unique site, and more difficult to value than other properties, partly because there were no comparable leases, he said. It was also under a different planning and development regime administered by the Commonwealth.

“The unique combination of the Crown Lease for the airport’s site which was developed when the airport was privatised, and the Airport’s essential infrastructure, results in the need for this alternative methodology,” the spokesperson said.

“The ACT government and Canberra airport believe in maintaining a cooperative working relationship which will encourage the integration of the airport with Canberra and its surrounds.”

When the bill was introduced in September, Chief Minister Andrew Barr said it would ensure the airport paid its fair share and avoid mounting legal and other dispute costs.

The airport argues that because the airport is on commonwealth land it has no statutory obligation to pay rates – although its lease with the Commonwealth requires it to come to an agreement on rates.The airport also points out that its lease is not renewable but reverts to the Commonwealth after 99 years, and it comes with an obligation to build and operate a runway.

Source : Canberra Times

Fear, Anger and Hatred: The Rise of Germany’s New Right

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Photo Gallery: Growing Radicalism in Germany

For years, a sense of disillusionment has been growing on the right. Now, the refugee crisis has magnified that frustration. Increasingly, people from the very center of society are identifying with the movement — even as political debate coarsens and violence increases.  By SPIEGEL Staff

Martin Bahrmann, a local politician in the Saxon town of Meissen, was just preparing to speak in a council debate on refugee shelters when a ball-point pen ricoched off the back of his head. It was a cheap, plastic writing utensil — blue with white writing.

As a member of the business friendly Free Democrats (FDP), Bahrmann’s seat in the regional council is at the very back and the visitors’ gallery is just behind him. The pen must have come from somebody in the audience. When Bahrmann turned around, he found himself looking at a sea of hostile faces. Although there were around 80 visitors in the gallery, nobody admitted to having seen who threw the pen. On the contrary: The FDP representative and his colleagues were later insulted as being “traitors to the German people.”

Bahrmann, 28, does not draw a salary for his involvement in local politics. It is merely his contribution to a functioning democracy. He was born and grew up in the region he represents and he has known many of the people there for many years. But even he, Bahrmann says, now must be more careful about when and where he makes political appearances. Ever since the regional council discussed transforming the former Hotel Weinböhla into a refugee hostel, the established political parties have been confronted with the hate of many locals. One Left Party representative was spit on as he was walking down the street while another was threatened with violence. Meanwhile, representatives from the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and the neo-Nazi NPD were celebrated for having voted against the refugees in the regional council.

The pen thrown in Meissen may not have garnered much media attention, but it says a lot about the public mood in Germany, a country in which increasing numbers of people are united against the state, its institutions and its elected officials. It is a country in which antipathy towards democracy is gradually increasing while xenophobia is growing rapidly. And it is a country where incidents of right-wing violence are on the rise and refugee hostels are set on fire almost daily.

It is still just a radical minority that is responsible for much of the xenophobia and violence. The tens of thousands of volunteers who offer their assistance in refugee shelters every day still predominate. But at the same time, a new right-wing movement is growing — and it is much more adroit and, to many, appealing than any of its predecessors.

Reinforcements from the Center of Society

In the past, the right wing was characterized primarily by thugs with shaved heads, bomber jackets and jackboots — people who had difficulty getting the words “Blood & Honour” tattooed on their arms without a spelling mistake. After the 1990s, the jackboot crowd was replaced by the “Autonomous Nationalists,” right-wing extremists who disguised themselves by wearing left-wing clothing, but who were just as violent as their forebears.

These street-extremists are still around, but they have received reinforcements. The New Right comes out of the bourgeois center of society and includes intellectuals with conservative values, devout Christians and those angry at the political class. The new movement also attracts people that might otherwise be described as leftist: Putin admirers, for example, anti-globalization activists and radical pacifists. Movements are growing together that have never before been part of the same camp. Together, they have formed a vocal protest movement that has radicalized the climate in the country by way of public demonstrations and a digital offensive on the Internet.

he state and its organs, such as the government and parliament, have become the object of a kind of derision not seen since the founding of postwar Germany. Once again, political representatives are being denounced as “traitors to their people,” the parliament as a “chatter chamber” and mainstream newspapers as “systemically conformist.” All are insults that have origins in Germany’s dark past.

It’s not just the government’s refugee policies that are bringing the New Right together. The origins are much deeper, reaching back to the protests against the welfare reforms passed in the early 2000s, the anger at the euro bailouts and demonstrations against massive construction projects such as Stuttgart 21. They were all demonstrations of angry citizens who felt their politicians were failing them. Many of them have since become even angrier and have, at least internally, transformed into radicals.

The 1 million refugees who have arrived in Germany in 2015 are now acting as a catalyst for this new right-wing movement. The fear of foreigners, of being “swamped” by them, is bonding the New Right together and drawing more “concerned citizens” into their ranks every day.

Unsettled Germans

German society seems more unsettled than it has in a long time. In a survey performed by TNS Forschung for SPIEGEL (see left-hand column), 84 percent of respondents said that the large number of refugees currently coming to Germany will result in “lasting changes” to the country. Some 54 percent said they are concerned that the danger of terrorism is higher due to the influx of refugees and 51 percent believe that the crime rate will rise. Forty-three percent are worried that unemployment will increase.

The answers reflect a deep unease in our society. Many people seem to have lost their orientation. They feel that their concerns are not being taken seriously enough by the federal government, which hasn’t exactly given the impression that it has the refugee crisis under control. That doesn’t mean that these people will succumb to the siren song of the far-right, but it does mean they have become more susceptible to it.

Yet the right-wing populist phenomenon is not one that is typically German. Such parties have been gaining in strength almost everywhere in Europe in recent years and societies appear to be radicalizing across the entire Continent while the political center empties out. Thus far, though, German politics and the German populace have been able to resist the right-wing seduction — movements like the Front National in France, for example, which celebrated strong results in the first round of regional elections last Sunday.

These days, though, the question as to whether such a thing could happen in Germany has become more pressing. Germany’s New Right is following a strategy similar to that of Front National head Marine Le Pen: that of putting a friendly face on radicalism. Her followers are no longer to appear threatening. They should seem friendly, like the nice conservative next door.

There is much that is reminiscent of the Tea Party in the US. That movement came into being as a result of a radical rejection of establishment politics in Washington. Those who joined were united by a sense that they were being cheated by political, business and media elites.

Watching Helplessly

Their radicalism has since changed US society and the Republican Party to such a degree that they are hardly recognizable anymore. Driven in part by Tea Party ideology, the campaign ahead of the Republican primaries has turned into a contest to see who can come up with the most drastic positions. Donald Trump, who is currently leading in the polls, slid to a new low with his demand that all Muslims be prevented from entering the United States.

There are plenty of indications that such a Tea Party movement would fundamentally alter the political landscape in Germany as well. The right-wing populist AfD now has up to 10 percent support according to the most recent surveys — and this despite an embarrassing power struggle at the top over the summer and an extreme lack of professionalism.

The other parties, though, have been left to helplessly watch the developments on the right wing of the political spectrum. Sigmar Gabriel, who is Chancellor Angela Merkel’s vice chancellor and head of the center-right Social Democratic Party, felt in the summer that it was important to keep the lines of communication open to “Pegida,” the xenophobic protest movement that stages weekly anti-refugee marches in Dresden. Not long after, though, he abandoned that idea, preferring instead to refer to the demonstrators simply as a “pack.”

But it is Merkel’s conservatives — her Christian Democrats combined with the Christian Social Union in Bavaria — that are the most unsettled. Their members and functionaries are torn between their loyalty to a chancellor who opened Germany’s doors to the refugees and their desire to provide a political home to those who are concerned about the migrant influx. Indeed, Merkel’s political fate will partly be decided by how she chooses to deal with the New Right.

It is a movement that one can see firsthand every Sunday at 4 p.m. in Plauen, just south of Leipzig in Germany’s east, just as the glittering lights of the Christmas market come on in the historic city center. The organizers of the weekly “We Are Germany” demonstration have assembled their flatbed trucks and an audience of a couple thousand people has gathered. The purpose of the event is to provide a stage to everyday citizens, an idea that goes back to the weeks leading up to the collapse of East Germany.

Hilmar Brademann is the first to step up to the microphone. A house painter from Plauen, he is the founder of the local carnival club and is well-liked and respected. Brademann says he doesn’t have anything against foreigners in principle. But please not here in Plauen. “I don’t want Plauen to turn into another Berlin-Kreuzberg, where one sees women in headscarves or even burkas,” he says. The audience applauds his words. They continue cheering when he says that he is opposed to public benefits being given to refugees. He then addresses his concerns about crime. “They should be immediately deported.” The crowd is rapturous.

‘The Same Could Happen to Us’

The “We Are Germany” demonstrations in Plauen have thus far been seen as a more moderate version of the Pegida marches in Dresden. It is neither a place for waving Bismarck-era war flags nor for wooden gallows bearing Angela Merkel’s name — both of which have been seen in Dresden. Representatives from right-wing parties are unwanted.

But in recent weeks, the mood in Plauen has become more aggressive. Instead of referring to the “Federal Republic,” speakers increasing refer to it as the “shit state” or the “gang state.” Few speakers refrain from accusing Chancellor Merkel, who was just named Time magazine’s “Person of the Year,” of being a “traitor to the people.” A certain Mr. Dinnebier, a construction supervisor from Plauen, warned recently of new customs that he fears could be brought to Germany by refugees from Africa: “When a local king there dies,” he said, “at least seven virgins are buried in his grave with him.” A Dr. Rothfuss, formerly a professor at Tübingen University, says that Christians “have almost been exterminated” in the Arab world. “The same could happen to us here.”

Such hateful slogans and sentiments against the state and foreigners are coming from law-abiding citizens from the heart of society. They display a mixture of old prejudices combined with new conspiracy theories that is typical for the movement on the right-wing of Germany’s political spectrum.

The Otto Brenner Stiftung, a foundation with ties to German labor unions, published a study of right-wing populism in Germany over the summer. The organization found that supporters of the New Right no longer clearly identify themselves as right-wing. “The division between traditionally leftist and traditionally rightist attitudes is disappearing,” the study says. “The actors are increasingly positioning themselves outside the classic right-left schemata.” Study author Wolfgang Storz speaks of a “cross-front,” a term that goes back to the Weimar Republic, when young conservative thinkers such as Arthur Moeller van den Bruck were trying to understand how nationalist and socialist ideas might fit together. The effort found success not long thereafter.

The new “cross-front” is fond of reading the monthly magazine Compact. Editor-in-Chief Jürgen Elsässer used to be a member of a communist organization and wrote for such left-wing publications as Junge Welt,Neues Deutschland and Freitag. Many of his commentaries, such as those in opposition to the trans-Atlantic free trade deal or the alleged warmongering of the US would still not look out of place in leftist newspapers. Elsässer’s admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin is also widely shared among German left-wingers.

Political scientist Markus Linden, from the University of Trier, believes that the new protest movement is primarily united in its distrust of societal elites. Politicians, business leaders, media professionals: They are all suspected of having formed a conspiracy against everyday people.

Bringing the Movement Together

When Elsässer appeared before a demonstration in Berlin recently, he called for the unification of all the movements he supports. “Antifa, Pegida, Mahnwache, left and right, march together,” he called out. “You don’t have to love each other. But you do have a civil responsibility: that of showing those at the top where the limits are.”

Elsässer is one of many who are trying to bring the new movement together. He studied education, wears a fashionably tailored black suit and invites his readers to events in the Best Western Premier Hotel Moa Berlin. Not unlike a medical conference.

It is a Saturday in October and more than 1,000 people have paid €99 to take part in Elsässer’s “Freedom Conference.” Some of them are skinheads, but most are from the center of society, married couples and a surprising number of fathers who have brought along their grown-up sons.

Participants were only told of the conference’s exact location by email one day earlier. The checks at the entrance are strict, so the event gets started an hour late. Media coverage is not desired.

Elsässer’s tirades are well received by the gathered public. In the Germany he describes, supermarket cashiers are threatened by refugees “with machetes.” Women are afraid to go out on the street alone because of “young foreign men” who don’t have their hormones under control and “grope, leer at and do worse” to women. German schoolchildren, he says, are being disadvantaged by their do-gooder teachers and are being forced to dress in accordance with “Islamic custom.” Elsässer doesn’t say where his information comes from, but when he shouts “Defend Yourselves!”, he is rewarded with loud applause.

Elsässer has adopted a number of revolutionary terms he learned during his time as a radical leftist and remains loyal to the powers that be in Russia. The Institute of Democracy and Cooperation, which has ties to the Kremlin in Moscow, supported the Compact conference as an event partner. Launched in 2008, one of the institute’s co-founders is a lawyer with ties to Vladimir Putin.

The Tolstoi Institut, founded in 2014, is also among Elsässer’s circle of friends. Located in Berlin, the institute “for the promotion of the German-Russian friendship” offers language courses, readings and concerts. It seeks to “counter” Anglo-Saxon influence with “something Russo-German,” for example with Putin’s vision of “Eurasia.” According to a study by the Hungarian research institute Political Capital, Russia maintains relations with far-right groups in 13 European Union countries, including the FPÖ in Austria, Vlaams Belang in Belgium, Hungary’s Jobbik and the Front National in France. At the end of 2014, a Russian bank even loaned Front National €9 million. “German right-wing extremists have been trying for years to establish contacts with Russian politicians,” one German security official says. “And Moscow takes advantage.”

‘Resistance!’

In Hotel Moa Berlin, Elsässer’s event has something to offer everybody, from the far left to the far right. The controversial playwright Rolf Hochhuth took the stage, saying “only Germany’s exit from NATO can prevent its downfall.” He was followed later by Götz Kubitschek, one of the intellectual leaders of the New Right. A former first lieutenant in the reserves, he was forced to leave the German military in 2001 for his participation in “right-wing extremist endeavors.” In May 2000, he joined high school teacher Karlheinz Weissmann in founding the Institute for State Politics, a kind of New Right think tank.

Recently, Kubitschek has appeared several times with Elsässer and Björn Höcke, the AfD politician who laid a German flag on his armchair during an appearance on a popular political talk show. Kubitschek also speaks at Pegida events, such as one in Dresden at the beginning of October. It is good, he said, that a clash is brewing. The crowd answered: “Resistance!”

Ken Jebsen is also among the leaders and idols of the movement, a former moderator with the public broadcaster RBB who refers to the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks in the US as a “terror lie.” Then there is Michael Stürzenberger, formerly a press spokesman for the CSU — Merkel’s Bavarian allies — in Munich and now head of the anti-Islam party “Freedom.” He is also a main contributor to the far-right website Politically Incorrect. Felix Menzel, editor-in-chief of the right-wing publication Blaue Narzisse and a creative muse behind the irredentist “Identity Movement,” is also involved. In his blog, Menzel describes the current state of Germany as follows: “A government that no longer obeys the law, and supported by parliament, the press and possibly also the courts, is confronted by a protest movement that is searching for the lowest common denominator to transform itself into a mass movement.”

Most New Right leaders don’t perpetrate violence themselves. Rather, they exert influence on the mood of the country — at conferences, on market squares and, most of all, in the Internet. In doing so, they are creating an atmosphere that encourages violence-prone right-wing extremists to act on the rhetoric. It is hardly surprising that the man who attacked the Cologne mayoral candidate Henriette Reker with a knife only now became violent. He had been well known as a neo-Nazi for 30 years, but had never been accused of violence. Now, though, he suddenly felt emboldened. “I had to do it,” he told police after the attack, the motive for which was Reker’s permissive stance on refugees. “The foreigners are taking our jobs away.” Among right wingers, the attack has been celebrated as an “act of self-defense.”

Cases of right-wing violence have increased dramatically in recent months — and the attacks are getting more brutal. On the night of Dec. 7, two baby carriages were set on fire in the entry hall of an apartment complex housing 70 refugees in the Thuringia town of Altenburg. Ten people, including two babies, suffered smoke inhalation. Just two days prior, right-wing activists from Thügida, the local chapter of Pegida, had marched through Altenburg with signs reading: “Please continue your flight. There’s nowhere to live here.”

A ‘Disgrace for Germany’

The demonstration and the fire were only reported in a few nationwide outlets. People have become used to such attacks in Germany.

By Dec. 7, the German Interior Ministry had registered 817 “criminal acts on asylum hostels.” At the beginning of October, the total was only 505. Compared to 2014, the number of attacks has at least quadrupled. Arson attacks have increased 11-fold, from six in 2014 to 68 this year. In October alone, officials registered 1,717 politically motivated infractions committed by the right wing. In September, the total was 1,484. Since the summer, the increase in violence has been steep.

The development is “alarming” and a “disgrace for Germany,” says Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière. He says it is not just a problem for the country’s security apparatus, but for the entire society at large. “We have to be careful that xenophobia and right-wing extremism don’t creep into the center of our society,” he says. Officials, he says, are watching “very carefully to see if trans-regional structures are developing and what crime patterns and perpetrator characteristics are identifiable.”

An analysis performed by Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) has determined that the perpetrators are not always right-wing extremists. Not even a third of the perpetrators identified have had previous encounters with the authorities. The majority had spotless records before they marched off to their local refugee hostel. Kim M., a 39-year-old tax inspector from Escheburg in the northern German state of Schleswig Holstein, is one example. On Feb. 9, he dumped a canister of paint thinner into an empty residence and then tossed in a pack of burning matches. His act was meant to prevent the arrival of new neighbors, six refugees from Iraq. “I thought I was doing a good thing,” he told the Lübeck court. It is a common refrain. The more the New Right is able to present itself as the victim of a hostile political class, the stronger will be the impulse to resort to violence in the fight against that class.

This new form of resistance can be found across the entire country. In Heppenheim, a city of 25,000 in the state of Hesse, unknown arsonists set fire in early September to a baby carriage at the entrance of a hostel housing 50 refugees. It was the middle of the night, and smoke quickly filled the staircase. One resident jumped out of a second floor window and sustained serious injuries while several others suffered from smoke inhalation.

An analysis completed by the BKA found that the refugee issue has the capacity to “generate a substance-ideological consensus” on society’s right-wing fringe. A “völkish ideology” is spreading across the country, the study found. Last summer, the BKA warned that those who welcome refugees with open arms could increasingly become objects of right-wing hate. The number of attacks on the offices of political parties or political representatives has spiked dramatically in recent weeks.

Next Wave of Hate

There are Pegida chapters now in several states, and some of them have come under observation by domestic intelligence officials. Right-wing violence was also a central focus of last week’s state interior minister conference in Koblenz. State intelligence officials have been asked to develop a “counter-strategy” by spring. That is when the next big wave of refugees is expected — and the next wave of hate.

But even more important than combating the symptoms is the question of what could have caused this shift to the right. Where does the rage against foreigners and “them up there” come from? What’s the reason bestseller lists are full of literary diatribes like Thilo Sarrazin’s “Germany Is Doing Away With Itself,” Akif Pirinçci’s “Germany Loses Its Mind” and “Warning! Civil War!” by Udo Ulfkotte, a former journalist for theFrankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung?

Some of this may be attributable to a kind of globalization that primarily benefits business and political elites, leaving many citizens feeling like they only ever see its downsides. All they see is jobs being outsourced abroad, wage dumping or migrants and refugees, whom they perceive as threats.

It seems as if the refugee crisis is bundling the suppressed fears of German society and stirring them into an explosive mixture. The nationalistically inclined — the ones who were afraid of being overrun by foreigners well before the first foreigner moved into their neighborhood — now feel a burning concern for their fatherland. Those critical of Islam have nurtured the illusion of an impending “Islamification of the West” or an outright German Shariah state as hundreds of thousands of mostly Muslim refugees arrive. Low-income earners are afraid the refugees will compete with them for jobs or welfare payments. Then there are the politically jaded, the ones who regard ruling politicians as incompetent and suspect democracy is a weak form of government anyway. They feel validated by the poor management of the refugee crisis.

Social scientists have been warning for a while that a considerable portion of the population has decoupled itself from what is known as democratic consensus. They don’t vote, they ignore the established political parties and they hardly read the news anymore. “Our democracy isn’t perfect,” the political scientist Wolfgang Merkel recently warned. “The de facto exclusion of the lower class is worrying.”

But it has long been more than just people of limited means who are susceptible to the anti-democratic leanings of this new right-wing movement. The fact that conservative citizens have drifted further to the right in recent years also has to do with the evolution of the party system. Many traditional voters of the leading Christian Democratic Union and its sister party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union, have long felt politically homeless in Germany. They have broken away from the Union because they disapprove of the sudden shift toward modernity by Angela Merkel, who in the course of her now 10-year chancellorship has abandon one traditional conservative position after the next. Near equal rights for homosexuals were received in conservative milieus with about as much incredulity as the vehement expansion of day-care facilities, paternal leave, the abolition of compulsory military service or Germany’s shift toward renewable energy. If all that wasn’t enough, the last links between Germany’s conservatives and the CDU have crumbled since Merkel adopted her open-door policy toward refugees.

No Voice in Parliament

Then there’s the fact that members of the ruling grand coalition, pairing the conservatives with the Social Democrats, make up nearly 80 percent of the Bundestag. The sole opposition parties, the Left and the Greens, are to the left. The Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, failed to win enough votes in the last election in the fall of 2013 to get into parliament. So did the FDP, the CDU’s former coalition partners. Millions of citizens who identify to the right of the Union have no voice in parliament.

The political scientist Herfried Münkler speaks of a “narrowing of the political horizon.” “The resonance axis between the political establishment and broad swathes of the population is broken,” says the sociology professor Hartmut Rosa. This is the real reason for the success of this new movement.

No established party is even listened to in the protest milieu of the new right — with one exception: the AfD. The populists are despised by some rightists for being part of the political establishment, yet they still enjoy a kind of “outsider bonus” in the scene. On the off chance these people do vote, it’s for the AfD — regardless of whether they know the candidates or not. It’s not the people that count, but the signal of protest.

It wasn’t that long ago that the AfD, now led by Frauke Petry looked doomed. In the summer, party founder Bernd Lucke was dethroned and he and his followers bowed out, leaving the AfD to lick its wounds. Ten percent of AfD members left the party and its new leaders seemed paralyzed, according to insiders. Popularity of the right-wing party slipped so low that surveys were close to labeling them “other.”

At a meeting of the party’s new leaders in early August, Petry announced her idea of an “autumn offensive.” The topics were the euro and immigration, but talk of the euro evaporated quickly. The AfD functionaries were practically falling over themselves to offer the most extreme demands regarding refugees, from border closures to lifting the right to seek asylum — even suggesting that German police could fire on refugees with live ammunition, only in an emergency, of course. The party had long wrestled with the question of whether it wanted to be a middle-class party with a focus on fiscal policy or the New Right’s representative in Germany. Now they’ve decided on the more radical variant.

No one embodies this as ruthlessly as the head of the AfD’s branch in the German state of Thuringia, Björn Höcke, a man who openly prognosticates impending “civil war” in his speeches in the marketplaces of eastern Germany. In the past few weeks, Höcke has evolved into a sort of German Tea Party activist. He wants to use the potential of the New Right for his own party and like few others in the AfD, he nurtures the connection to the scene and makes the rounds at local citizens rallies. Höcke wants to make them into front organizations for the AfD, as unions once were for the SPD.

A Gift from the ‘Barbarians’

Meanwhile, reputable pollsters such as Allensbach and Infratest dimap put the AfD’s support among voters at around 8 to 10 percent. The AfD, for its part, prefers to rely on the studies of its own in-house pollster, Hermann Binkert, a former spokesman for Thuringia’s Christian Democratic governor, Dieter Althaus. Binkert believes his party would get 22 percent of the vote if elections were held this Sunday.

“Of course we have first and foremost the refugee crisis to thank for our resurgence,” says deputy party chief Alexander Gauland, a long-time CDU politician and publisher of the regional newspaper Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung. Like the other protagonists of the New Right, he puts emphasis on appearing civilized — at least outwardly. “You could call this crisis a gift for us. It has been very helpful.” That hasn’t stopped Gauland from calling the people, whose arrival has been such a gift for him, “barbarians.”

Ever since the success of France’s Front National party, many in the AfD dream of becoming its German counterpart — a far-right people’s party. Officially, Petry distances herself from Marine Le Pen’s party. But her political objectives are nearly identical on many points, especially on the issue of asylum, immigration and integration. Even in areas of economic policy, many of their respective positions could easily be mistaken for the other’s. Both oppose TTIP, euro bailouts, a banking union and sanctions against Russia. Both the AfD and the Front National also mistrust big banks and corporations.

The AfD’s base wouldn’t mind seeing a closer relationship with the French. On the party’s Facebook page, supporters have left comments asking why there was no praise for Le Pen. Lutz Bachmann, the founder of Pegida, wrote on his Facebook page, “Congratulations, Marine! Congratulations, Front National!”

Armin Paul Hampel would never congratulate Le Pen. He’s one of the new heads of the AfD, though many people may already know his face. It’s one of the many curiosities about the AfD that among its top leaders sits a member of the much-hated “systemically conformist” media. Hampel reported on German national politics for the broadcasters MDR and ARD for many years. Now he takes his microphone and shows up alongside Björn Höcke at the marketplaces in Erfurt and tells people that those very same broadcasters “lie and cheat and deceive. Just like in East Germany.”

Self-Censorship

“Lying press!” the crowd chants. A few weeks later, he’ll say that he doesn’t like those words. He prefers, “Pinocchio press.” He says it sounds nicer. In an elegant three-piece suit, Hampel is sprawled in a chair in a bistro in the Uelzen train station. He’s got to leave soon for appearances in Pforzheim and Passau. In the beginning, the AfD didn’t trust him, says the former journalist. But now they’re grateful that he has explained to them the true state of affairs in the media.

“No, of course not all journalists lie. I always explain to people that I’ve never experienced an editor who censored reports. That’s not how things work.” But there are too many “colleagues” — by that, Hampel means journalists — that have “scissors in their heads.” They simply censor themselves.

In front of the bistro, Hampel lights a cigarette. A group of pensioners walks past and looks at him stealthily, as if to say, “We know that guy from somewhere.” At the moment, Hampel is talking about something that the “colleagues” had been particularly quiet about. “I don’t mean to play down the problem under any circumstances, but it’s obvious that a good number of these alleged arson attacks are coming from the refugees themselves, mostly out of ignorance of technology. Honestly, many of them are probably used to having indoor fires back in their home countries.”

Hampel uses the word “honestly” a lot, also to describe the alleged shift to the right in Germany. “Honestly, that seems to me to be pure propaganda. Are you afraid of a far-right mob? I’ve never seen one. I’ve never been attacked.” Strange.

Hampel is a prototype of the new AfD strategy: an educated man, socialized in the West, who for years could be seen on the evening news. No one can easily label him a right-wing agitator. The ex-journalist goes down well with the AfD grassroots because he considers himself reformed, someone who was a part of the system but got out. In eastern Germany, people “held onto something,” he says at a town square in Erfurt. “Thoughtfulness and a sense for when we are being told something that is not true. People are very sensitive to that here in Erfurt.”

Verbal Feeding Frenzies

The fact that people on the far-right have their own illusions about the world has much to do with the fact that they deliberately boycott conventional media and prefer to rely on their own sources of information. In communications science jargon, journalists are known as “gatekeepers,” because they fulfill a similar role as the watchers of city gates in the Middle Ages. They decide which news are relevant and interesting enough to be passed along to the reader.

More and more Germans are starting to believe that the gatekeepers of traditional media are withholding important news, like that climate change isn’t so bad. Or that the euro is doomed, but nuclear power is safe. That the Americans are ruining Germany and Putin is fighting for lasting peace. The New Right therefore prefers to seek out its own gatekeepers — and places its trust in people who filter and manipulate the messages way more radically.

These include the makers of freiewelt.net, a portal run by the husband of one of the AfD’s members in the European Parliament, as well as the homophobes from the fundamental Catholic site, kath.net. There’s also the anti-Islam bloggers from Politically Incorrect and the self-proclaimed “ethno-pluralists” of the “Identitarian movement” or the national conservatives on the platform “Sezession.” Not to mention the conspiracy theorists from Kopp-Online, KenFM and the German branch of “Russia Today.”

Before, angry citizens had to write letters to the editors of local newspapers. These were typically published days later, if at all, and were often shortened. Today, they can chat with like-minded people for hours and let themselves be dragged into verbal feeding frenzies in the Internet’s many forums.

But the master of disinformation remains Lutz Bachmann. Nearly every day, the trained chef with a criminal record for theft, drug trafficking and various burglaries, bombards his 20,000 Facebook fans with horror stories about refugees. Bachmann’s daily routine probably looks something like this: Wake up, make coffee, sift through stories from both the “lying” and allied press, filter out the worst reports and then present them to his followers with somber comments:

  • In Osnabrück, a foreigner without a train ticket got aggressive after being stopped by authorities.
  • In Spenge in North Rhine-Westphalia, an Afghan allegedly molested a schoolchild.
  • Lots of “unfortunate isolated incidents,” Bachmann likes to quip.

Wild Rumors

When it comes to negative news, the agitator trusts the “lying press” without reservation. Then he floods his timeline with news that fits his world view, whether they’re well-founded reports or wild rumors.

Just how much parts of the population have become radicalized is evident in the increasing number of people who are willing to use their real names, says the Bielefeld-based conflict researcher Andreas Zick. “Radicalization demands distancing oneself from the majority of society.”

Plus, he says, that makes identification within groups even stronger. Right-wing leaders have recognized the effect and have begun explicitly calling for people to use their real names.

“We should throw these parasites in the shit head-first. Ingrate shit rabble!” writes a certain Stefan Edling on one of the many anti-refugee Facebook pages. “Doesn’t Dachau have a camp?” writes Alex Matzke, and appends two smileys to his message. Karin Wünsch wrote the following comment underneath a video: “First hit them in the mouth a couple of times so the animals stop screeching and then deport them.” A man named Burt Bleier even wrote: “They should all be exterminated. They don’t contribute anything productive or useful to society anyway.”

For much too long, Germany’s middle did not pay close enough attention to the radicalization taking place on the right. We looked away and ignored it. We can’t do that anymore. We can’t look away anymore even if we wanted to. The New Right has become too loud; their influence on the climate in the country has become too great.

Germany’s large political parties, though, also bear some responsibility. Bound together in a grand coalition, they are in danger of repeating the mistakes made in the 1960s. Back then, the 1968 movement gained momentum in part because the CDU and the SPD overlooked the need for modernization and societal reform.

‘Germany Will Survive’

Today, the New Right is nourished by the refugee policies pursued by the Merkel administration, which has thus far been unable to address the concerns of many Germans, even as the readiness to help remains widespread. “Merkel doesn’t have a plan,” says former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, expressing a sentiment that a majority of parliamentarians from the SPD and conservatives are only willing to discuss behind closed doors.

But Germany’s largest parties will only be able to regain their lost credibility if they clearly distance themselves from xenophobia and nationalism on the one hand while addressing societal concerns of vulnerability and of being unable to cope. Otherwise, as German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble noted this week in Brussels, election results like the one seen last Sunday in France will not be the exception.

Neither politicians nor the German populace should harbor any illusions about the ultimate goal of the right-wing thinkers and their growing numbers of followers. It is the same goal pursued by people like Carl Schmitt, a fascist thinker in the Weimar Republic. He wanted to destroy the democratic system so that something new could develop in its place, no matter what that might actually look like.

One of the most popular images in the new right-wing movement is that of a blond woman with a blond child in her lap. It has been shared thousands of times on Facebook. Underneath the image, it reads: “Germany will also survive the federal republic.”

 

Source : spiegel.de

Orthodox Church Receives Majority of Russian Government Grants

The Moscow Times

Dec. 21 2015 16:17

Last edited 16:17

Flag of Russia.svg

Petar Milosevic / Wikicommons

The Orthodox Church has been the biggest beneficiary of presidential grants given to non-governmental organizations, or NGOs, in Russia over the past several years, a study published Monday revealed.

According to the report prepared by the Center for Economic and Political Reforms, the organizations controlled by the Moscow Patriarchate or close to the Russian Orthodox Church, received at least 63 presidential grants worth 256 million rubles ($3.6 million) between 2013 and 2015.

Among other large recipients of government grants are are pro-Kremlin youth organizations, which received more than 100 million rubles over the same period, the study found out.

Another big beneficiary of presidential grants are NGOs promoting an Eurasianism ideology that supports anti-Western sentiment and the idea of a multipolar world.

In the three years between 2013 and 2015, such organizations received dozens of grants worth more than 90 million rubles ($1.2 million), according to the study.

The study also reveals that since 2012, the total amount of grants awarded to non-commercial organizations has been constantly growing.

In 2013, 2.5 billion rubles ($35 million) were granted to NGOs, 2.5 times more than in 2012. In 2014, the amount of grants increased to 3.6 billion rubles ($50.7 million), followed by 4.2 billion rubles($59 million) allocated in 2015.

The authors of the study attribute the sharp increase of the spending on NGOs to the tense climate in Russia’s domestic and foreign policy.

The government was forced to spend more money on NGOs because of the tightening of control over foreign funding of non-commercial organizations because of the so-called foreign agents law, the report said.

In 2012, Russia passed a legislation requiring all NGOs that receive foreign funding and are engaged in political activity, to register as “foreign agents”, a Soviet term for spy. A number of prominent NGOs have decided to shut down rather than accept the label of “foreign agent.”

Source : The Moscow Times

Como uma ruptura histórica pode gerar
 a maior oportunidade de lucro dos últimos 25 anos

Atual cédula de 100 reais anverso.jpg

Veja a seguir o que você precisa fazer para multiplicar seu patrimônio nos próximos meses

 

“Conte com as circunstâncias, que também são fadas. Conte mais com o imprevisto. O imprevisto é uma espécie de deus avulso, ao qual é preciso dar algumas ações de graças; pode ter voto decisivo na assembleia dos acontecimentos.”

 

Caro leitor,

Este documento encerra o ciclo mais importante da minha vida profissional, iniciado na metade de 2014 com o lançamento de “O Fim do Brasil”.

Desde então divulguei uma sequência de alertas sobre a economia e os mercados brasileiros.

Todos esses alertas foram PROVADOS pelos indicadores econômicos e geraram MILHÕES de reais para os meus leitores. Simplesmente não há como negar a realidade dos fatos.

Hoje concluo a história iniciada um ano e meio atrás.

O desfecho que aguardamos durante todo esse tempo acaba de ser engatilhado por uma ruptura histórica, um processo com consequências inevitáveis.

Com isso, temos a engrenagem que faltava para a maior oportunidade de multiplicação de capital dos últimos 25 anos no Brasil.

Você não poderá simplesmente ignorar o que irá acontecer nos próximos dias. É algo que terá desdobramentos relevantes sobre o seu bolso e o de todos os brasileiros.

Aqueles que souberem se posicionar corretamente terão uma oportunidade raríssima — e prenunciada — de multiplicar o patrimônio por 2x, 3x e até 10x.

A maior alta da história

Para ter uma ideia da dimensão do que estou falando, peço atenção para o gráfico abaixo:

Ele retrata o desempenho histórico da Bolsa brasileira em dólares, um termômetro dos acontecimentos de nossa política e economia.

Os campos em azul marcam as maiores tendências de valorização da história do índice Bovespa.

O que elas têm em comum?

Todas foram engatilhadas por alguma ruptura estrutural. Reforço: todas.

A maior tendência de valorização da história da Bolsa brasileira, em destaque no gráfico, se deu a partir da perspectiva de impeachment de Fernando Collor…

Foram exatos +3.415% de lucro desde a abertura do processo até a consolidação do Plano Real.

Ou seja, quem investiu o equivalente a R$ 100 mil na época do impeachment de Collor retirou R$ 3,4 milhões seis anos e cinco meses depois.

É um ganho formidável, praticamente impossível de ser obtido em qualquer outro contexto e com qualquer outra categoria de aplicação, que somente foi permitido por se tratar de uma alteração no status quo — um processo de ruptura.

O segundo movimento de valorização mais expressivo do Ibovespa também foi disparado por uma quebra estrutural de ordem política…

A valorização de +2.051%, registrada entre 2002 e 2008, teve como ponto de partida a publicação da “Carta aos Brasileiros”

Nela, o então eleito presidente Lula comprometeu-se a seguir com as políticas de estabilização da economia implementadas por seu antecessor FHC — quebrando, assim, com o chamado “risco-Lula” que inundava os mercados com incertezas.

De 2008 para cá, enfrentamos anos e anos de vacas magras, sem qualquer processo de ruptura e sem uma tendência histórica de valorização expressiva para o Ibovespa.

Agora, oito anos após o encerramento daquele ciclo, estamos diante de uma nova quebra estrutural, capaz de engatilhar a maior oportunidade de lucro dos últimos 25 anos no mercado brasileiro.

Nas próximas linhas, vou lhe apresentar uma série de argumentos sólidos para comprovar a minha tese.

 

Estamos diante de uma ruptura 
inevitável e de grandes proporções

 

O momento atual reúne uma série de eventos sem precedente histórico.

Temos como pano de fundo:

✓ a abertura de um novo processo de impeachment

✓ o pior período de crescimento da história da economia brasileira

✓ a necessidade de alteração do status quo: após 12 anos de governo populista, a destruição das contas públicas exige uma reavaliação das políticas vigentes

✓ um contexto de elementos inéditos na história republicana, como a prisão de um Senador em exercício e o rompimento público entre a presidente (Dilma Rousseff), o vice-presidente (Michel Temer) e o presidente da Câmara (Eduardo Cunha)

✓ uma nova “carta aos brasileiros”, escrita pelo PMDB, comprometendo-se com um programa bastante liberal e amigável aos mercados

Qualquer um desses fatores, isolado, seria condição suficiente para uma potencial ruptura. O somatório deles torna a quebra estrutural inevitável e de grandes proporções.

Estamos falando simplesmente:

…do segundo processo de impeachment desde a redemocratização do País, sendo que a única ocasião anterior (que culminou na renúncia de Collor) foi justamente o ponto de partida para a maior tendência de alta já registrada na Bolsa brasileira;

…de três anos seguidos de depressão econômica, com estagnação em 2014 (+0,1%) e retrações seguidas do PIB da ordem de -3,5% em 2015 e -2,5% (média das projeções atuais) para 2016. Não há em toda história republicana uma sequência tão negativa para a economia brasileira;

…do maior rombo nas contas públicas já registrado. Após mudar a legislação para não cometer crime de Responsabilidade Fiscal em 2014 e ter suas contas rejeitadas pelo TCU, Dilma Rousseff caminha para divulgar um déficit da ordem de R$ 100 bilhões em 2015.

…de um rompimento político e ideológico entre os três principais atores da república no exercício da função. Algo que coloca esta como a maior crise política que se tem registro no Brasil. 

Ainda resta alguma dúvida quanto à presença de elementos significativos para um processo de ruptura?

Independentemente se essa mudança ocorrer pela via do impeachment ou não, note que simplesmente não dá para continuar com esse cenário por três anos ou mais.

Peço extrema atenção aqui. A importância histórica deste momento não pode ser questionada.

Este é um chamado para todos os brasileiros.

 

A maior chance de dar a volta é justamente quando chegamos mais perto do precipício…

E posso afirmar com convicção: enfim temos uma perspectiva de saída da crise.

 

Há quem projete reação negativa dos mercados ao desenrolar do processo de impeachment. Segundo essa visão, a medida aumenta a temperatura da crise política.

Isso adicionaria volatilidade e incerteza, e dominaria a pauta, deixando o necessário ajuste das contas públicas em segundo plano.

Eu discordo dessa visão.

A abertura do processo de impedimento da presidente tira o Brasil da paralisia, seja qual for o resultado.

Hoje não há governo, tampouco prioridade para o ajuste fiscal.

O governo só faz defender-se da ofensiva em prol do impeachment. É um governo que segue uma agenda: a da sobrevivência.

Todo esforço da atual gestão é direcionado a evitar a sua queda.

Simplesmente não há reformas estruturais em curso ou qualquer projeto relevante de médio e longo prazo para o País.

Por sua vez, a oposição esforça-se em tentativas de afastar a presidente Dilma.

Ora, se queremos superar a crise política e econômica, primeiro precisamos decidir se o Brasil continua ou não com o atual governo.

Definido isso, podemos apontar um novo caminho. Do contrário, não haverá avanços substanciais.

O impeachment é, portanto, a janela (com data marcada) para definir esse curso.

Limpamos a pauta em torno do impeachment e, então, passamos a pensar no que interessa ao País, e não somente em interesses particulares em torno do tema do afastamento.

Digo isso mesmo no caso de continuidade da presidente, cujo comprometimento atual está pautado em impedir o avanço do processo… Enfrenta-se o problema, que, caso superado, permitiria o foco em outras medidas essenciais, como o ajuste fiscal.

O fim da paralisia do governo, portanto, tende a ser extremamente positivo para os mercados.

E, obviamente, supondo o afastamento da presidente, a reação dos ativos de risco seria bastante favorável.

“Poxa, mas no caso de impeachment não haveria risco de um agravamento dos conflitos?”

Se você está preocupado com os potenciais desdobramentos desse processo, lhe asseguro: temos instituições fortes, uma economia grande e o maior partido brasileiro é de centro (PMDB), o que impede radicalizações.

Veja bem…

Dilma está na origem, no meio e no fim da crise. Ela tornou-se sinônimo da mesma.

Por sua vez, o PMDB já escreveu a sua “carta aos brasileiros”, comprometendo-se com um programa bastante liberal e amigável aos mercados.

De uma forma ou de outra, com ou sem a saída da presidente, temos uma ruptura estrutural e um caminho para o endereçamento da crise.

Se até então não víamos qualquer saída para a crise (ausência de evidência), agora ela encontra o seu marco mais importante, no iminente fim da paralisia do governo.

A maior chance de dar a volta é justamente quando chegamos mais perto do precipício. E posso afirmar com convicção: estamos chegando lá.

Mas como os mercados reagirão aos próximos desdobramentos?

 

Após oito anos sem uma tendência de valorização expressiva, enfim estamos à beira do próximo ciclo

 

Com indicadores econômicos nas mínimas de 10 anos, 15 anos, e até 20 anos, poucas vezes na história recente conseguimos reunir uma série de estatísticas tão negativas para os mercados brasileiros.

É justamente esse o ponto…

Warren Buffett, o maior investidor de todos os tempos e um dos três homens mais ricos do mundo, costuma dizer que a má notícia é a melhor amiga de um investidor:

“Ela permite que você compre uma fatia do futuro do País a um preço vil.”

Ou seja, quando todos estão otimistas, os ativos financeiros estão caros. É aí que você tem que proteger os seus investimentos.

Diga-me: você prefere comprar algo com o preço nas alturas ou entre mínimas históricas?

Hoje o Ibovespa está abaixo de 12 mil pontos em dólares, o que indica um retrocesso de 8 anos nos preços das ações brasileiras.

Trata-se de uma marca emblemática, que alerto desde a metade de 2014 como “o meu ponto de virada”:

Mas por que esta marca?

Obviamente, não cheguei nesse número por acaso.

Dê uma olhada no gráfico a seguir…

Ações brasileiras abaixo do piso da crise de 2008

No pior momento da crise de 2008, o Ibovespa atingiu exatos 12.712 pontos em dólares.

Neste exato instante, ele está na casa de 11 mil pontos.

Ou, diante de uma rara oportunidade de comprar algumas das melhores empresas brasileiras a preços mais baixos do que os vistos na crise de 2008.

Isso mesmo, abaixo do piso de preços atingido durante a maior crise enfrentada pelos mercados globais desde a Grande Depressão de 1929.

Significa que o investidor estrangeiro tem a oportunidade de comprar ações brasileiras a preços vis.

Mas somente o investidor estrangeiro?

Utilizamos a referência do Ibovespa em dólares por um motivo simples: os investidores estrangeiros são os principais responsáveis pelos movimentos de compra e venda no mercado brasileiro, e de forma bastante significativa.

Tomando por base os dados mais recentes de participação de investidores divulgados pela BM&F Bovespa, de novembro de 2015, do total acumulado de R$ 228,7 bilhões em operações na Bolsa brasileira, mais da metade (R$ 124,7 bilhões) veio justamente de investidores estrangeiro:

Ou seja, o fluxo estrangeiro é o principal responsável pelos grandes movimentos das ações brasileiras. Sem ele, simplesmente não há como sustentar uma tendência de valorização expressiva na Bolsa brasileira.

Se o momento atual é extremamente convidativo para o investidor estrangeiro, resta pegar carona neste movimento.

Mas por que apenas agora?

Pois o argumento de preço, isoladamente, não quer dizer muita coisa.

Nada impede uma ação barata de ficar ainda mais barata. Ativos baratos não vão ficar caros por mera inércia.

Necessitamos de um elemento que desperte a tendência de valorização. Um gatilho para disparar a alta.

No caso, esse gatilho vem da forma mais enfática possível: através de uma iminente mudança no status quo, uma quebra estrutural. A insustentabilidade — e iminente resolução — da crise.

Note que não sou apenas eu quem está dizendo.

Mais recentemente, essa realidade começou a chamar a atenção de economistas e investidores internacionais…

Você continuará ignorando estes ganhos?

Se ainda resta alguma dúvida quanto à janela de oportunidade histórica abertura na Bolsa brasileira, sugiro que dê uma olhada nos pisos (-90%, -82%, -70%) do nosso mercado nos últimos 35 anos…

E, como tendência posterior, de quanto estamos falando em termos de MULTIPLICAÇÃO DE VALOR.

87x, 29x, 20x…

De quanto será esta próxima tendência de valorização das ações brasileiras?

10x?

20x?

30x?

Independentemente do tamanho do fator multiplicador, certo é que os ganhos já começaram.

Nos últimos dias, temos uma série de evidências contundentes nesse sentido…

1. A FORÇA DO PROCESSO DE RUPTURA EM CURSO

Uma tendência de queda de grandes regimes populistas de esquerda tomou conta dos noticiários da América do Sul.

A derrota da ditadura de Nicolás Maduro na Venezuela e a queda do Kirchenismo na Argentina, ambos regimes apoiados pelo atual governo brasileiro, geraram algumas das valorizações mais expressivas registradas nos últimos anos em mercados da região.

O índice Merval da Argentina, por exemplo, subiu +52,6% em menos de dois meses.

Qual o fato gerador dessa alta?

O crescimento do movimento oposionista, a confirmação da realização de segundo turno nas eleições locais e o recente desfecho com a vitória do candidato da oposição Mauricio Macri.

Paralelamente, a Bolsa de Caracas acumulou valorização de 330% este ano durante o processo que culminou na derrota do governo Nicolás Maduro na composição do Congresso venezuelano…

Cumpre ponderar que essa variação da Bolsa de Caracas é inflada pela situação de hiperinflação da economia local, o que não impede, porém, a conclusão de efeito positivo da queda do regime como propulsor às ações locais.

Enquanto isso, por aqui vivemos situação parecida no dia da abertura do processo de impeachment contra Dilma Rousseff.

Se o efeito para a Bolsa brasileira como um todo tende a ser extremamente positivo, será ainda mais para algumas ações específicas.

Afinal, o Ibovespa nada mais é do que a média de performance das ações.

E, como toda média, há pontos acima e abaixo dessa marca.

Veja bem: a Bolsa está atrativa em dólares e temos um gatilho em potencial para a inversão de tendência…

Mas o que você pode fazer?

Vai comprar todas as 65 ações do Ibovespa?

Isolando as aplicações de perfil mais arrojado da Empiricus, que cuido pessoalmente, temos registrado performance bastante superior à do Ibovespa.

Estamos substancialmente acima da média.

Na última apuração, realizada na primeira semana de dezembro, por exemplo, o desempenho das ações recomendadas por nossa consultoria é positivo em +17,52% no acumulado de 2015, contra desempenho negativo de -11,13% do Ibovespa.

Essa é apenas uma pequena amostra da importância da seletividade, ou, de você estar nas ações certas e não se expor a riscos desnecessários.

Por isso afirmo: não há espaço para aventureiros aqui.

Um piscar de olhos e você terá perdido o que pode ser a maior oportunidade da sua vida. Uma oportunidade real de multiplicação de valor.

2. AS AÇÕES CERTAS PARA O MOMENTO

Mas afinal, quais as ações ideais para você extrair o máximo desta oportunidade histórica na Bolsa brasileira?

A relevância do momento exigiu que eu tomasse medidas extraordinárias…

Como estrategista-chefe da Empiricus, a maior consultoria de investimentos do Brasil, com mais de 1 milhão de leitores diários e 100 mil assinantes, trouxe para trabalhar lado a lado comigo o Bruce Barbosa, especialista em identificar grandes oportunidades de ações boas a preços extremamente atrativos (value investing).

Em um esforço conjunto, fizemos uma varredura em todo o universo das ações brasileiras, avaliando (uma a uma) mais de 300 oportunidades em potencial.

Como resultado, chegamos a apenas 4 nomes.

Isso mesmo, apenas quatro ações atenderam a rigorosamente TODOS os nossos critérios de multiplicação de valor.

Em setembro lançamos uma série especial, chamada As Oportunidades de uma Vida. Nela divulgamos esses quatro nomes para os nossos leitores.

Até então, os resultados são os seguintes:

+ A primeira ação registra lucro de +22,18%
A segunda de +19,53%
A terceira de +11,59%
+ E a quarta de +1,70%

Enquanto isso, o desempenho do Ibovespa no mesmo período foi negativo em -4,34%.

Ou seja, em cerca de dois meses, nosso leitor obteve retorno subtancialmente superior ao mercado e equivalente a mais de um ano inteiro na renda fixa.

No final de novembro, no entanto, fomos obrigados a refazer todo o processo de pesquisa das mais de 300 ações.

Isso, porque a segunda das Oportunidades de uma Vida, as ações da Cetip (CTIP3), empresa de registros e custódia do mercado financeiro, registrou um evento extraordinário: entrou em negociação para potencial fusão com a BM&F Bovespa.

Além da materialização de um gatilho importante que vinhamos defendendo, esse evento alterou a dinâmica dessas ações, que tiveram, assim, a sua recomendação encerrada com lucro de +19,53% em menos de dois meses.

Reabrimos assim a série Oportunidades de uma Vida, incluindo uma nova oportunidade no lugar de Cetip.

E desde a sua inclusão, em 24 de novembro, essa nova recomendação já rende lucro de +17,24% para os nossos leitores. Isso, em apenas 15 dias.

São resultados realmente formidáveis, sem dúvida, mas que são apenas o primeiro esboço de um processo muito mais amplo de multiplicação de valor em curso.

A maior oportunidade de lucro 
dos últimos 25 anos no Brasil

O alerta da sequência é fundamental para darmos o próximo passo (prático):

Até aqui, vimos que:

1) há um processo de ruptura histórico em curso, capaz de engatilhar a próxima tendência de valorização expressiva do mercado brasileiro;



2) esse processo de ruptura é inevitável e de grandes proporções;



3) após oito anos sem uma tendência de alta relevante, enfim estamos à beira do próximo ciclo de multiplicação, com um marca raríssima de atratividade para as ações brasileiras;



4) o ciclo de valorização começou e já rende alguns lucros formidáveis para os nossos leitores.


Não tenho a pretensão de adivinhar pontos de mínima e máxima da Bolsa, por um simples motivo: trata-se de algo impossível.

Os mercados envolvem diversas variáveis imensuráveis, componente emocional dos agentes e questões que não cabem nas planilhas dos ditos “especialistas”.

Muitas vezes, o maior risco é justamente aquele imprevisível, de alto impacto (os cisnes negros de Nassim Taleb), ou aquilo que nem sequer sabemos que não sabemos (“unknown unknowns” de Donald Rumsfeld).

Estou plenamente ciente disso. E é essencial que você também esteja.

A oportunidade que estou falando aqui não se trata de elucubração ou oportunismo de minha parte, por conta de manchetes a torto e a direito que exploram a “brilhante” conclusão de que a Bolsa brasileira está mais atrativa para o capital estrangeiro com a valorização do dólar…

Trata, sim, de uma marca que falo desde metade de 2014 como o meu ponto para a virada.
Desde quando o dólar estava abaixo de R$ 2,50 e o Ibovespa, em reais, na casa de 55 mil pontos. Foi apenas mais uma das minhas projeções que soaram absurdas em primeiro momento.

Por isso, reforço: estamos diante de uma oportunidade raríssima, gerada de anos em anos, que apenas é proporcionada em momentos de ruptura histórica.

Não arriscaria uma reputação construída por seguidas previsões econômicas certeiras se não tivesse algo realmente relevante em mãos para lhe apresentar.

“Olá Felipe,
 
Nossa, reli teu material o ACERTO DE CONTAS, com esta segunda feira Negra nos mercados e vinculei com as profecias dos grandes médiuns. Tú es um profeta com assinatura de analista econômico.”

H.O.

“Fiquei muito satisfeito com sugestão e apresento o$ meu$ mai$ sincero$ agrade$cimento$ à EMPIRICUS /FELIPE MIRANDA, por me evidenciar, de forma inatacável e incontestável, sobre a valorização do DÓLAR! Encharcado de conhecimento assumi o “risco” e apliquei 35% do meu patrimônio financeiro em multifundos, em US$, em espécie.Agora posso aguardar com tranquilidade a normalização da economia brasileira. OBRIGADÍSSIMO !!!! VOCÊS me deram uma tranquilidade à médio prazo…”

Carlos R.

“Quero agradecer-lhe pessoalmente por dois alertas que evitaram que fizesse o pior. Minha mão “coçou” para empregar o 13o em ações de PDG Realty e Petrobras, que pareciam baratas. Hoje já estão a uma fração daquele valor!”

Eduardo G.

Agora peço um voto de confiança na minha capacidade de multiplicação de valor.

Não estou dando nenhum passo no escuro.

Sei exatamente o que estou falando quando trato dos ciclos de mercado. Tenho uma experiência pessoal marcante nisso…

Meu pai era um trader de ações. Ele quebrou em 1999 com a derrocada do fundo LTCM, em meio à crise. Acompanhei isso de perto.

Passamos nos reerguendo por 4 anos, quando voltamos a investir forte em Bolsa. Fizemos algo realmente importante em poucos anos. Estávamos de volta acima do patamar anterior já em 2007.

Tudo isso porque aproveitamos uma única oportunidade em 2003.

Oportunidades de multiplicação de capital com baixo perfil de risco, que por si só valem por uma vida de investimento…

… oportunidades que aparecem raríssimas vezes, como, agora, com a Bolsa abaixo do piso em dólares atingido na crise de 2008.

Identificamos 4 alternativas formidáveis para multiplicação de valor na Bolsa atual.

Reabrimos a série Oportunidades de uma Vida, revisitamos todos os casos, um a um, e indicamos uma nova oportunidade que rende +17,2% em 15 dias.

Faço questão de reafirmar: trata-se apenas de um primeiro esboço de um processo muito mais amplo de multiplicação de valor que está em curso.

Como estrategista-chefe da maior consultoria de investimentos do Brasil, tenho como dever fiduciário alertar os meus leitores para estas oportunidades.

Todos ganharemos com elas.

Acredito que, à exceção dessas quatro oportunidades, o potencial de multiplicação disponível na Bolsa brasileira não é transformacional, ou envolve riscos demasiados.

Por isso, é importante concentrar nessas quatro oportunidades.

Meu colega Bruce Barbosa lhe apresentará cada uma delas na minissérie exclusiva As Oportunidades de uma Vida.

E, paralelamente, me certificarei pessoalmente de que você estará protegido dos próximos desdobramentos econômicos através da minha série quinzenal Palavra do Estrategista.

 

O que você precisa para conseguir multiplicar seu capital com esta oportunidade

 

Antes de darmos o último passo, preciso que responda a três perguntas simples.

É indispensável que responda “sim” a todas elas, como condição para enquadrá-lo nas oportunidades em questão:
Questão #1: Você está disposto a gastar 20 minutos a cada 15 dias fora de sua zona de conforto?

As oportunidades que vou lhe apresentar não envolvem riscos desnecessários ou instrumentos financeiros complexos.

Somente vou recomendar aplicações normais, com boa liquidez de negociação e de fácil acesso.

E como você estará apenas seguindo as oportunidades de aplicação regulares, você não precisará de contas especiais para capitalizar as recomendações do Palavra do Estrategista.

Você pode usar uma corretora à sua escolha, caso prefira, ou mesmo o seu banco.

A única coisa que lhe peço é para acompanhar os alertas que virão de quinze em quinze dias em seu e-mail. Não nos responsabilizaremos por recomendações que não forem seguidas.

As instruções serão simples e diretas. Você não precisará de mais do que 20 minutos para entender e aplicar cada uma delas. Apenas peço que reserve esse tempo para segui-las.
Questão #2: Você está disposto a dedicar os recursos necessários para extrair o máximo de valor disso?

Uma das vantagens do Palavra do Estrategista é que – por estar apenas fazendo aplicações convencionais – não precisará desembolsar um grande montante de capital.

No entanto, eu recomendo fortemente que, caso você queira extrair o máximo dessas oportunidades, tenha à disposição pelo menos R$ 5 mil para seguir as recomendações.

Estamos lidando com a possibilidade de multiplicação de valor de forma que, para mudar o seu padrão financeiro para sempre, seria ideal ter montante próximo ou superior a isso para gerarmos rapidamente um retorno significativo.
Questão #3: Você está levando isto a sério?

Falei no decorrer deste texto sobre a possibilidade de multiplicação de capital, e isso naturalmente mexe com o emocional das pessoas, gerando excitação.

Mas estamos próximos de atingir o ponto de transformar palavras em ação.

O que quero dizer especificamente é que se você estiver disposto a agir sobre estas oportunidades recomendadas, você precisa de levá-las muito a sério e se dedicar a elas.

Isso porque preciso que tenha o mínimo comprometimento diante do enorme compromisso que estou assumindo aqui.

#

Caso tenha respondido “sim” a todas as perguntas, considere-se pronto para colocar tudo isso em prática.

Enfim, você está a um passo de aproveitar a maior oportunidade de lucro dos últimos 25 anos no mercado brasileiro.

Você pode começar a ganhar imediatamente após aceitar este convite.

Tenho convicção de que algumas pessoas podem lucrar milhares de reais, talvez milhões apenas com esta oportunidade…
 
Não arriscaria uma reputação construída por seguidas previsões econômicas certeiras se não tivesse algo realmente relevante em mãos para lhe apresentar.

O meu compromisso:

– Vou lhe apresentar as quatro melhores oportunidades de multiplicação da Bolsa brasileira através da série As Oportunidades de uma Vida

– Vou acompanhar com você os desdobramentos da crise e dos próximos passos da ruptura econômica através da minha série quinzenal Palavra do Estrategista, o relatório de investimentos mais acessado do mercado de capitais brasileiro, responsável por uma série de previsões importantes, desde O Fim do Brasil, a destruição da Petrobras, a disparada do dólar…

Bônus especial: além disso, a partir desta carta você também terá acesso à newsletter DailyPRO, com tudo o que precisa saber diariamente, nas primeiras horas da manhã, direto em seu e-mail. O Daily conta com a participação de todos os analistas da Empiricus e traz uma visão dos impactos para o seu bolso dos eventos mais relevantes do dia.

Quanto custa tudo isso?

O valor para adesão ao Palavra do Estrategista com acesso à série Oportunidades de uma Vida é de R$ 9,90 por mês na assinatura anual nesta condição exclusiva.

E você não tem risco nenhum em dar o próximo passo…

A qualquer momento dentro dos primeiros 30 dias de assinatura, se você entender que o Palavra do Estrategista não lhe será útil, tem a possibilidade de solicitar o cancelamento da sua inscrição com reembolso do valor empregado.

Por R$ 9,90, você:

1) Conhecerá todos os desdobramentos da crise antes que aconteçam e o que deve fazer para blindar o seu patrimônio – Palavra do Estrategista (relatório de periodicidade quinzenal)

2) Terá acesso à série As oportunidades de uma vida, com as quatro oportunidades de multiplicação de capital que a Bolsa oferece em níveis inferiores em dólar às mínimas atingidas na crise de 2008.

3) Terá com o DailyPRO um guia diário com tudo o que é relevante (e pode impactar) o seu bolso.
Estamos diante de uma oportunidade raríssima, gerada de anos em anos, que apenas é proporcionada em momentos de ruptura histórica.

Um piscar de olhos e você terá perdido o que pode ser a maior oportunidade da sua vida. Uma oportunidade real de multiplicação de valor.

 

Fonte : empiricus.com.br

Quarta-feira , 23 de dezembro de 2015 , 06h00(Horário de Fortaleza)

Map showing day and night parts of the world

UTC time = Quarta-feira, 23 de Dezembro de 2015, 09:00:00. Fortaleza local time = Quarta-feira, 23 de Dezembro de 2015, 06:00:00. Fortaleza local time = Quarta-feira, 23 de Dezembro de 2015, 06:00:00.

Fonte:http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html?day=23&month=12&year=2015&hour=6&min=00&sec=0&n=491&ntxt=Fortaleza&earth=1

 

Quarta-feira , 23 de dezembro de 2015 , 05h45(Horário de Fortaleza)

Map showing day and night parts of the world

UTC time = Quarta-feira, 23 de Dezembro de 2015, 08:44:00. Fortaleza local time = Quarta-feira, 23 de Dezembro de 2015, 05:44:00. Fortaleza local time = Quarta-feira, 23 de Dezembro de 2015, 05:44:00.

Fonte :http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html?day=23&month=12&year=2015&hour=5&min=45&sec=0&n=491&ntxt=Fortaleza&earth=1