Labor storms ahead

November 25, 2013

Mark Kenny

Chief political correspondent

Bill Shorten has made the strongest debut of any opposition leader since Kevin Rudd in 2006-07, propelling Labor into the lead over a government weighed down by its secretive asylum-seeker response and an unconvincing commitment to action on global warming.

The first Fairfax Nielsen poll since the September 7 election has charted a rapid recovery for the ALP, with the opposition shooting to a 52-48 per cent lead over the government on the preferences of respondents – the quickest poll lead achieved by any federal opposition after losing an election.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott is lagging Opposition Leader Bill Shorten less than three months after winning the election.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott is lagging Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Photo: James Brickwood

It is also the first time Labor has led on the two-party-preferred vote in more than three years.

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The result will be seen as a wake-up call to the Abbott government as it struggles to maintain public confidence in its tough stop-the-boats policy while refusing to reveal the most basic details on the grounds of operational security.

Labor’s primary vote has recovered to 37 per cent, up 4 percentage points since the election, while the Coalition’s primary support has fallen by 5 points to 41 per cent.

<small>THE NIELSEN POLL IS DONE ON LANDLINE TELEPHONES NATIONWIDE. INTERVIEWS WERE CONDUCTED NOVEMBER 21-23 WITH 1400 RESPONDENTS. MAXIMUM MARGIN OF SAMPLING ERROR TO APPLY TO THIS SAMPLE IS +/2.6%. </small>

THE NIELSEN POLL IS DONE ON LANDLINE TELEPHONES NATIONWIDE. INTERVIEWS WERE CONDUCTED NOVEMBER 21-23 WITH 1400 RESPONDENTS. MAXIMUM MARGIN OF SAMPLING ERROR TO APPLY TO THIS SAMPLE IS +/2.6%.

The Greens also picked up support, rising from 9 per cent to 11 per cent.

Immigration Minister Scott Morrison has declared the government’s Operation Sovereign Borders was proceeding ”unaffected” by the withdrawal of co-operation by Indonesia – a claim apparently at odds with views coming from Jakarta, where military and police assistance on people smuggling has been suspended.

The government is also struggling to explain to voters why it campaigned against spending – declaring the answer to debt is never more debt – but is now seeking an unprecedented $200 billion hike in the national credit card limit.

<small>UNCOMMITTED VOTERS (4%) WERE REDISTRIBUTED. FIGURES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING. TWO-PARTY PREFERRED BASED ON 139 OUT OF 150 ELECTORATES.</small>

UNCOMMITTED VOTERS (4%) WERE REDISTRIBUTED. FIGURES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING. TWO-PARTY PREFERRED BASED ON 139 OUT OF 150 ELECTORATES.

The poll of 1400 respondents across the country was taken from Thursday to Saturday and has a margin of error of 2.6 per cent.

The drift away from the Coalition comes despite voters backing its attempts to abolish the carbon tax, with 57 per cent wanting Labor to get out of the way.

However, respondents also expressed overwhelming belief in the reality of climate change, with nearly 87 per cent judging the 2020 target of a 5 per cent emissions reduction as either about right (46 per cent) or too low (41 per cent).

Prime Minister Tony Abbott recorded his first net positive approval rating since August 2010, although only just with a statistically unreliable plus 1 per cent. This was made up of an approval rating of 47 per cent – up 4 points since he was in opposition – and a disapproval rating of 46 per cent. And while he leads Mr Shorten convincingly as preferred prime minister – 49 per cent to 41 per cent – the Labor leader has a far greater net approval rating of plus 21 points. That was made up of a strong 51 per cent approval rating and a 30 per cent disapproval rating.

Pollster John Stirton said this was the best debut rating for an opposition leader since Kevin Rudd was first judged by voters in February 2007 with a huge net approval rating of 50 per cent. Mr Stirton said the opposition had taken the lead within three months of an election, compared with the 2½ years it had taken the Coalition to hit the front after the 2007 ”Ruddslide” election.

The poor result for the government is likely to cool its double-dissolution ”hawks”. It may also have implications for the upcoming byelection in Mr Rudd’s seat of Griffith, with Queensland showing the largest Labor primary vote of all states at 42 per cent.

Mr Abbott has kept the double-dissolution option alive as Labor and the Greens prepare to vote down the carbon tax repeal bills in the Senate next month.

The Prime Minister took to YouTube on Sunday night in a bid to ratchet up the pressure on Mr Shorten to allow the repeal, telling voters that ”you voted to scrap the carbon tax, the House of Representatives has voted to scrap the carbon tax, and now it’s up to the Senate to do the same, and I want this done by Christmas”.

Equally worrying for Mr Abbott is the low standing of his signature stop-the-boats policy, already under a cloud because of the breakdown of co-operation with Indonesia. Less than half of all voters, 42 per cent, approve of the way the government is handling its policy and 50 per cent disapprove.

That is sure to add to growing discontent within the Coalition at the performance of Mr Morrison.

 

The Sydney Morning Herald

Post-election poll sends message to Tony Abbott to earn voters’ trust

November 25, 2013

Michael Gordon

Political editor, The Age

Some honeymoon! The first post-election Age/Nielsen Poll is a reality check for Coalition MPs who think the election was an emphatic vote for their people and policies.

It wasn’t.

It was a referendum on a rabble that could not muster the collective wit, will and discipline to govern itself and, as a result, was ruled ineligible to govern the country.

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Now that the rabble has been evicted, the message to Tony Abbott and his team is simple: don’t get ahead of yourselves. You have to earn the people’s trust.

Yes, voters wanted to get rid of the carbon tax, but they had – and have – little confidence that Abbott’s ”direct action” is the answer on climate change.

Twelve per cent support for a top-order policy that was taken to the last two elections is an indictment of the Coalition’s ability to sell a positive message.

Yes, the electorate wanted to stop the boats, but this poll suggests voters are less than impressed by the way in which ”Major” Morrison is setting out to achieve this end.

Traditionally, it takes a long time for defeated governments to get their nose back in front in the polls.

An analysis of elections since 1972 by pollster John Stirton shows it has taken anything from 12 months (in 1972) to 2½ years (in 2007) for an opposition to secure a two-party preferred lead after a change in government.

That Labor has done so within a couple of months is remarkable – and should invite self-examination on both sides of politics.

It is also the case that newly elected prime ministers generally have approval ratings of more than 50 per cent and disapproval ratings in the 20s or 30s.

Abbott is the exception and still has almost as many detractors as admirers, with 47 per cent approving and 46 per cent disapproving.

Consider this.

It took Kevin Rudd 2½ years for his disapproval to hit 49 per cent; Julia Gillard nine months to hit 47 per cent; John Howard 18 months to hit 46 per cent; Paul Keating three months to hit 45 per cent (though Labor had been in power for four terms at that stage); Bob Hawke almost three years to hit 48 per cent; Malcolm Fraser 12 months to hit 47 per cent; and Gough Whitlam 11 months to hit 46 per cent.

Abbott was an unpopular leader when the Coalition was riding high in the polls and his September victory and conduct since then do not appear to have substantially changed perceptions.

He has largely been ascendant in the Parliament, but his handling of the revelations that Australia tried to listen in on the phones of Indonesian friends and the President’s wife turned a difficult issue into a full-blown crisis.

Now he has to find a way out, fast.

Hopefully, the letter he sent to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono provides the foundation for one. Hopefully, too, a review of intelligence-gathering is under way – one that measures the potential benefits of spying on declared friends against the fallout if this spying is revealed.

Bill Shorten has made a positive but cautious start as Labor leader, but should not be too buoyed by these numbers.

Rather than an emphatic endorsement of his (and Labor’s) performance since the September election, voters are simply glad that Gillard and Rudd have departed the stage – and seem willing to give Shorten a clean slate.

Indeed, by confirming that the election was overwhelmingly a rejection of Labor, the poll results reflect poorly on all those who were party to the leadership turmoil that engulfed the party in mid-2010.

If Labor fails to learn the basic lesson that disunity is death, this bounce will be temporary and meaningless.

The Sydney Morning Herald

Gugu Liberato quer ter 2 empregos ! Um em Portugal e outro no Brasil ! É querer assobiar e chupar cana ao mesmo tempo …

 

Gugu Liberato continua em entendimentos com a TV Sic, de Portugal. Há o interesse de ele fazer um programa por lá…
… Mas o problema esbarra na distância que os separam. Gugu pretende retomar o seu trabalho na televisão também por aqui…
… E ainda tenta encontrar um meio de acomodar os pés nas duas canoas.

 

Flávio Ricco com colaboração de José Carlos Nery

Flávio Ricco comenta a vinheta de fim de ano da TV Gazeta

Está em processo de finalização a vinheta de fim de ano da TV Gazeta. Além da participação em vídeo, o elenco da casa vai aparecer cantando a música tema da campanha.

Produzida pela equipe de Comunicação de Social, a campanha entra no ar nesta segunda-feira.

Entre erros e acertos, a diversão tomou conta dos bastidores. Confira o vídeo: 

 

Flávio Ricco com colaboração de José Carlos Nery

Bia Rosenberg participará de dosi painéis no Qatar no próxima fim de semana

A diretora Bia Rosenberg, ex-Cultura, vai participar de dois painéis no Doha Film Festival, no Qatar, dias 27 e 28, para discussões sobre mídia ecriança.

No evento, Bia irá apresentar o projeto de nova série de TV “Igarapé Mágico”, que se passa na região amazônica, e tem estreia marcada para janeiro na TV Brasil.

Flávio Ricco com colaboração de José Carlos Nery

Jeniffer Setti estará no seriado A Segunda Dama

Bruno Rangel/Divulgação

 

Depois de viver Inocência em “Dona Xepa”, na Record, Jeniffer Setti acertou com a Globo para integrar o elenco da série “A Segunda Dama”, que estreia dia 28 de janeiro.

Nessa produção, Heloisa Périssé viverá as gêmeas Marali e Analu, e também estão confirmados Fábio Lago e Elizângela. Direção de Wolf Maya.

 

Flávio Ricco com colaboração de José Carlos Nery

Globo quer aproveitar mais seu elenco em seus programas

 

Uma das propostas de trabalho da nova direção da Globo é otimizar o aproveitamento dos seus contratados.

Diversificar o campo de atuação de cada um. Claudia Raia, por exemplo, vai estrear no comando de um quadro do “Caldeirão do Huck”, tipo um paradão de sucessos.

 

Flávio Ricco com colaboração de José Carlos Nery